Quel post intéressant du blogue Agents of change! On y développe une théorie d’évaluation des gardiens de but selon laquelle on doit prendre en compte l’ensemble des facteurs défensifs d’un match de hockey, plus poussé que le %age d’arrêt :

« Instead of comparing goaltenders by save percentage, Schuckers has developed a methodology that measures goaltenders by a more accurate measure, in my opinion. He calls it the “Defense Independent Goalie Rating” or DIGR. It is designed to create an adjusted save percentage number that more accurately measures goalie performance. Not a perfect measure, but more accurate than save percentage is on its own. »

Selon cette méthode, on évalue par exemple que le niveau de difficulté des lancers et de la tâche d’un Corey Scheider est plus forte que celle d’un Luongo, pourtant dans la même équipe.

Quelques constats intéressants tirés de cette méthode :

« A few interesting points taken out of the league-wide analysis include:

  • Not surprisingly last year, Tim Thomas was the top goalie, followed by Cory Schneider and Roberto Luongo. While it is not a surprise that Thomas is at the top given his phenomenal year, the difference between Thomas and the second best goalie shrinks by about 0.5% after accounting for the difficulty of the shots he faced. Thomas had a great year but was helped by a strong defense.
  • Jonathon Quick had the easiest shots in the NHL and Cory Schneider faced the hardest set of shots.
  • Among goalies facing 1000 shots or more, Jaroslav Halak had to face the most difficult shots, on average. You have to think that will change this year under Ken Hitchcock.
  • Jonas Hiller and Bryzgalov are the only two goalies to appear in the top 10 of the DIGR for both the 2009-10 and 2010-11 seasons. »

Le classement 2011 ici :

Name DIGR RawSV% Shots Faced Avg Goalie Salary10-11
1 TimThomas 0.9312 0.9386 1808 0.9184 6
2 CorySchneider 0.9285 0.9253 669 0.9009 0.9
3 RobertoLuongo 0.9269 0.9275 1752 0.9104 10
4 JonasHiller 0.9269 0.9249 1452 0.9067 4.5
5 IlyaBryzgalov 0.9234 0.9211 2103 0.9121 4.5
6 CamWard 0.9232 0.9221 2336 0.9123 5
7 Marc-AndreFleury 0.9227 0.9189 1738 0.9134 6
8 DevanDubnyk 0.9224 0.9164 1101 0.9067 0.8
9 CoreyCrawford 0.9219 0.92 1538 0.9109 0.85
10 CareyPrice 0.9218 0.922 2142 0.9132 2.5
11 BrentJohnson 0.9214 0.9236 602 0.9144 0.6
12 PekkaRinne 0.9204 0.9293 1881 0.916 2.8
13 HenrikLundqvist 0.918 0.9204 1961 0.9159 7.75
14 JaroslavHalak 0.9178 0.9117 1483 0.9055 2.75
15 TomasVokoun 0.9177 0.9208 1705 0.9152 6.3
16 OndrejPavelec 0.9177 0.9153 1700 0.9101 1
17 TuukkaRask 0.9176 0.9183 857 0.9143 1
18 SergeiBobrovsky 0.9173 0.9167 1500 0.9103 0.9
19 SemyonVarlamov 0.917 0.9223 759 0.9165 0.77
20 MichalNeuvirth 0.9164 0.9156 1280 0.9143 0.77
21 RyanMiller 0.916 0.9157 1958 0.9148 6.25
22 BrianBoucher 0.9159 0.9156 900 0.9187 0.93
23 JamesReimer 0.9141 0.9222 1131 0.9184 0.56
24 JoseTheodore 0.914 0.9178 961 0.9158 1.1
25 JonathanBernier 0.9139 0.9098 654 0.9176 0.77
26 AnttiNiemi 0.9138 0.9175 1745 0.9158 2
27 CurtisMcElhinney 0.9137 0.8997 708 0.9056 0.57
28 DwayneRoloson 0.9136 0.9138 1519 0.9196 3
29 MathieuGaron 0.9132 0.9027 884 0.9099 1.2
30 KariLehtonen 0.9125 0.9152 2029 0.9183 2.7
31 JohanHedberg 0.9122 0.9104 748 0.9134 1
32 CraigAnderson 0.9121 0.9157 1519 0.9182 2.13
33 NiklasBackstrom 0.912 0.9184 1531 0.9205 6
34 ScottClemmensen 0.9112 0.9102 835 0.9186 1.1
35 AnteroNiittymaki 0.9101 0.9018 611 0.9105 2
36 MartyTurco 0.9095 0.8974 799 0.9129 1.3
37 JonathanQuick 0.9091 0.9162 1634 0.9208 1.9
38 MartinBrodeur 0.9087 0.9057 1305 0.9177 5.2
39 JonasGustavsson 0.9071 0.8914 617 0.9121 1.3
40 JimmyHoward 0.9067 0.91 1801 0.9137 0.8
41 ChrisMason 0.9066 0.8921 853 0.9068 1.6
42 SteveMason 0.9064 0.9002 1503 0.9123 0.77
43 Jean-SebastienGiguere 0.9051 0.9029 762 0.9191 7
44 DanEllis 0.9043 0.9003 1083 0.9143 1.5
45 MiikkaKiprusoff 0.902 0.9058 1910 0.9198 7
46 PeterBudaj 0.9019 0.8961 1232 0.9119 1.25
47 BrianElliott 0.9 0.8947 1520 0.9126 0.9
48 NikolaiKhabibulin 0.8999 0.8917 1385 0.9068 3.75
49 RickDiPietro 0.8925 0.8847 772 0.9077 4.5

 

On trouve l’article ici : http://www.theagentsofchange.com/2012/02/ritch-responds-goalie-analytics.html